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    高輝,高晶.黑潮冬季海溫對我國東北地區夏季降水預測信號的增強[J].海洋學報,2014,36(7):27-33
    黑潮冬季海溫對我國東北地區夏季降水預測信號的增強
    Increased influences of the SST along the Kuroshio in previous winter on the summer precipitation in northeastern China
    投稿時間:2013-04-23  修訂日期:2013-12-20
    DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2014.04.004
    中文關鍵詞:  黑潮  東北冷渦  西太平洋副熱帶高壓  降水
    英文關鍵詞:Kurishio  northeastern cold vortex  western Pacific subtropical high  precipitation
    基金項目:公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(201306033);科技部國際合作項目(2009DFA23010)。
    作者單位
    高輝 中國氣象局 國家氣候中心, 北京 100081 
    高晶 內蒙古自治區氣候中心, 內蒙古 呼和浩特 010051 
    摘要點擊次數: 3700
    全文下載次數: 25440
    中文摘要:
          統計分析結果表明,黑潮冬季海溫和東北夏季降水的關系有非常明顯的年代際變化,表現為從20世紀50-60年代弱的正相關逐步轉變為現階段很強的負相關。尤其是在東北夏季降水異常年份,黑潮海溫呈明顯的反位相變化,因此可被視為一個非常有效的前兆預測信號。分析了可能的影響機制,即當前期黑潮海溫偏低時,海洋熱力異常的持續性會導致其夏季低層出現反氣旋式風場距平環流,在西太平洋副熱帶高壓(副高)西北側出現東北風距平及在東北冷渦東南側出現西南風距平,導致在副高區和東北冷渦區均形成氣旋式距平環流系統,從而減弱了副高并增強了東北冷渦。反之,黑潮海溫偏高時,其上空氣旋式距平環流系統將減弱東北冷渦強度和增強副高強度。這是黑潮海溫影響東北夏季降水異常的主要原因。
    英文摘要:
          Statistical results indicate the relationships between the SST along the Kuroshio in previous winter and the summer precipitation in northeastern China have experienced a remarkable interdecadal variation. In the 1950s and 1960s,the correlation is positive but weak,while in recent two decades the counterpart is significantly negative. In the flood or drought events in northeastern China,the SST along the Kuroshio shows quite different features and can be used as a precursory signal in climate prediction operation. The possible influencing mechanism is also analyzed in this paper. It is found the lower SST along the Kuroshio will cause an abnormal anticyclone in the lower troposphere in summer owing to the persistence of the thermal conditions of the ocean. This abnormal anticyclone will lead to an abnormal northeastly in the northwest side of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSTH) and an abnormal southwestly in the southeast part of the northeastern cold vortex (NECV),and result in an abnormal cyclone over the WPSTH and the NECV respectively. Thus the WPSTH is weakened while the NECV is strengthened. Under this circulation pattern,more summer precipitation will be found in northeastern China. On the contrary,the warmer SST along the Kuroshio will trigger an abnormal cyclone in the lower troposphere,and strengthen the WPSTH while weaken the NECV,and finally lead to less precipitation.
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